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Introduzione Nell’Unione monetaria europea (UME) le istituzioni e le politiche intraprese hanno tollerato o alimentato asimmetrie in parte preesistenti, che hanno generato a loro volta squilibri macroeconomici. Indichiamo prima le istituzioni e le politiche europee...
Evidence indicates that the tightening of restrictive policies experienced in Italy after 2010/11 did not lead to fiscal consolidation, while they contributed to increase debt-to-GDP ratio by curbing aggregate demand. Particularly, budget cuts occurred in health and education. On the contrary, we argue that expansionary measures may lower the debt ratio by increasing real output.
Italy has a ratio of public debt to GDP close to 132% despite 26 consecutive years of primary surpluses in public accounts. The data shows that interest expense led to the majority of the growth in this ratio, while the most effective factor to contain the increase was the GDP deflator. Trying to reduce the ratio parameter only by increasing primary surpluses seems a road of dubious effectiveness.
In line with our previous work, we simulate the effects of a policy measure designed to achieve a higher output gap. By increasing Italy’s participation rate we aim at finding a greater stance for fiscal policy that would allow for the deficit-financing of a minimum income conditional to active job-seeking. We also consider feasible effects on real output.
Tutti gli economisti e i politici riconoscono che il più grave e urgente problema che soffoca l'economia italiana è l'eccesso di debito pubblico. Tutti sono concordi: se il debito pubblico continua a crescere con...
We suggest a policy measure, consistent with UE budget constraints, which aims to achieve a higher output gap through an increase in the participation rate: the greater stance for fiscal policy would allow for the possibility to finance a minimum income (conditional to active job-seeking). An empirical example is provided for the Italian case.
The external constraint is still crucial within the EMU: without industrial policies aiming at enhance growth and export competitiveness, the same austerity measures implemented in the aftermath of the Eurozone crisis would be reintroduced to confine aggregate demand in peripheral countries in order to curb their import.